Last announcement before the summer break

Today, Sweden's Finance Minister Elisabeth Svantesson stated at a press conference that the fight against inflation has been won and that the government has raised the growth forecast. The growth forecast is raised to 1.4% this year, from the previous 0.7%. For 2025, the growth forecast is adjusted down to 2.4%, from 2.5%, and 2026 is also adjusted down to 3.1%, from the previous 3.2%.

On Thursday, Sweden's central bank will announce whether it will leave the policy rate unchanged or if it will go against the market's expectations and lower it. Personally, I still believe that a 25 basis point cut in the policy rate will happen at the monetary policy meeting on 19 August 2024 despite the Finance Minister's statement today. The only thing that possibly speaks for a reduction in the policy rate is that the Swedish krona has strengthened against the US dollar despite the interest rate cut earlier this spring.