I was wrong

The Swedish CPI for January 2024 ended up at 5.4% so my guess of 4.8% was 0.6% wrong which is more than 10%. The increase was higher than expected.

Despite that, the market still believes in a cut in the policy rate in the summer. Three of Sweden's major banks believe in a reduction in May, while the fourth believes in a policy rate cut in June.

Personally, I believe in 5 reductions of 25 points each in the second half of the year.