I really like to be in control

In the chart where I exclude all special and supplemental dividends, the difference between the forecast and outcome bars increases slightly the more of the year that has passed. The reasons for this are several variables, for example I do not adjust during the year if a company increases its dividend by ¢2 or less. This adjustment is made only once a year, at the turn of the year.

However, the absolute main reason why the outcome exceeds the forecast for November is the recent strengthening of the US dollar against the Swedish krona. In my spreadsheet I have a fixed exchange rate of 1 USD equals 10 SEK which is in my favor. The fixed exchange rate that I set is like an air cushion that adjusts for, among other things, exchange fees.

As long as the bars in this chart are the same height or the result is slightly higher than the forecast bars, I know for sure that my Google Sheet of future expected dividends is showing the absolute lowest value we will receive.

Click to enlarge