Good intentions do not excuse bad results

Grossly simplified, politics is ultimately about pitting groups against each other. Politicians control the distribution of tax money and decide not only which groups get to share in tax money, but also how much they get. This creates contradictions between the different groups. An example of this is the pension payments.

In an interview, Anna Pettersson Westerberg, director general and head of the Swedish pension authority, says quote "The Swedish pension system is fundamentally based on reasonable principles - that every krona earned gives a higher pension. The changes of recent years have meant that the principle of living income and the drive to work have eroded." unquote.

In Sweden, we have a state basic allowance that compensates those who have worked part-time or not at all, and the number who receive it is quite high. More than 60% of all pensioners receive some form of basic support. For example, of the Swedish citizens aged 66 and over, 14% of them receive a guaranteed pension.

The guarantee pension is a basic protection in the general pension which is for those who have had means, little or no income from work during their life. It is mainly based on how big your income pension is and how long you have lived in Sweden, but also your marital status.

The Swedish pension is part of the salary cost and in reality a deferred salary. Then paying out money to people who never deposited money into the system will be unsustainable in the long term. As long as the number of pensioners who withdraw money through guaranteed pensions is small and does not affect the other pensioners by more than a few cents, people accept it. But when cents turn into hundreds of dollars, the situation becomes completely different.

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Let's hope that Riksbanken acts maturely next week

Speaking of the Swedish policy rate, according to the Swedish newspaper Expressen, all Swedish major banks' experts agree that there will be a so-called double reduction next week. The last time this happened was July 3, 2014.

Swedbank was the first to declare in its Ranteblad for October as early as September 30, 2024 that it expects Riksbanken to lower the policy rate by 50 basis points.

Handelsbanken was significantly later with its forecast and wrote on October 29 that it expects a reduction in the Swedish policy rate by 50 basis points.

Last up was SEB, who only wrote on November 1, 2024 that they are predicting a 50 basis point cut in the policy rate next week. In addition to these major Swedish banks, Den Danske Bank and DNB also agree to this scenario, continues the newspaper Expressen.

As a counterweight to this, Swedish central bank governor Erik Thedéen has on several occasions warned of the risk of taking a double interest rate cut for granted. Sometimes Riksbanken's (re)acting can be experienced as a defiant 3-year-old, let's hope they have their big pants on next week.

Personally, I think that Riksbanken is "forced" instead of a voluntary reduction by 50 points this time mainly because they are aware that their measures take time before they work and that if Sweden's inflationary trend is not broken soon, Sweden may experience deflation.

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Exciting times await

Next week will be eventful in more ways than one. The outcome of the US presidential election will have a major impact on the Swedish krona's exchange rate, even if the market has already started to "price in" one of the candidates, reports the Swedish online newspaper Dagens PS Media AB.

Provided that a winner is decided on Tuesday or possibly early Wednesday morning Swedish time (GMT+2), Sweden will have one day's rest before the next important decision is published, namely the Swedish inflation figures for October and the Swedish centralbank AKA Riksbanken's decision on the policy rate.

The Central Bureau of Statistics (SCB) published for the first time last month a so-called "fast CPI", which is published about a week before the determined result. This time the "fast CPI" for October is published on 7 November 2024 at 8 a.m., while Riksbanken publishes its monetary policy decision including the policy rate on the same day at 9.30 a.m., i.e. 90 minutes later. I assume that SCB and Riksbanken exchange information with each other, which is not obvious in Sweden where strict secrecy prevails between the various authorities.

For example, the Swedish newspaper Expressen revealed that an internationally wanted gang leader and also one of Sweden's most feared criminals voluntarily contacted the Tax Agency, Sweden's equivalent to the IRS, and announced his whereabouts and received help with important documents. The newspaper's review also shows how the authority has long ignored several alarms about the notorious gang leader.

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Simplify, don't complicate

Avanza and Nordnet, which have stopped their clients from acquiring BDCs citing the PRIIP rules as a reason, have upset many Swedish investors, who are now abandoning both Avanza and Nordnet in favor of Nordea, which has not yet stopped these companies.

The PRIIP Regulation is a European regulation that aims to protect investors by requiring detailed information documents to be provided for certain investment products. These documents, known as KIDs (Key Information Documents), provide a standardized summary of the product's characteristics and risks, facilitating comparison and understanding for investors. The documents must be provided in the local language, in our case Swedish.

According to Avanza, BDCs are currently not compatible with PRIIP regulations due to differences in regulatory requirements and documentation standards between the US and the EU. The fact that neither Avanza nor Nordnet can provide such a fact sheet in Swedish, despite all the user-friendly and easily accessible AIs available, makes me believe that the EU wants some kind of information that the American BDCs do not have to provide in their fact sheets according to the domestic regulations. For Swedish online banks and stockbrokers to compile this information in their fact sheets, it becomes financially unsustainable and the product is instead removed from the assortment. In this way, Europe may have reduced the flight of European money to America.

Instead, Europe & the EU should reduce their focus on refugee flows, energy crises, wars etcetera and shift that part of their focus to future visions such as America or China to prevent white flight and loss of skills. Gone are the days when a strong brand meant you would be a humanitarian superpower, now is the time to pay for the party.

For this, Europe needs to shift its focus to its own citizens to prevent their willingness to pay taxes to wane completely, because then the really big problems for Europe begin.

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I must learn to be content

Aside from Rithm Capital Corp. Common Stock (RITM) is just breadcrumbs left over from October dividends for us to receive. Taking into account (RITM) dividends, by the end of October we will have passed the ingoing value of our estimated dividends for 2024, assuming we do not increase our investments during the year.

The result of us reinvesting all our dividends and the world's most perfect husband investing his monthly pension payment is that all the dividends we receive in November and December will be in addition to the expected outcome of the 2024 dividends. We are closing in on 2019's record dividend, although there is still a long way to go. Depending on how next year develops, we currently have good conditions to touch the outcome of 2019 at the end of next year.

I wish I was better at enjoying the moment than always wanting to move on, everything is a competition. The dividends we receive, despite being equivalent to almost 2/3 of our net salaries, are not "money" to me, they are simply tools to reach the next milestone, which is to pass 2019. I haven't set a final goal yet because I don't know when I will feel financially secure. This insecurity is due to the fact that my upbringing was very financially insecure for several years.

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