Sweden's central bank will most likely disappoint

The Swedish inflation rate according to CPIF (Consumer Price Index with fixed interest rate) was 1.1% in September, which is a decrease from August when it was 1.2%. The information is in line with SBC's preliminary inflation figures that came a week ago. According to price statistician Filip Hellberg at the Central Bureau of Statistics (SCB), the reason why inflation fell in September is that fuel prices have fallen. It is also in line with the average forecast among analysts, according to Bloomberg's compilation.

The fact that CPIF was again lower than Sweden's central bank AKA Riksbanken's target of a CPIF inflation of 2.0% increases the pressure on Riksbanken to lower the policy rate by 50 basis points on November 7, 2024.

Central Bank Governor Erik Thedeén confirms that the quote "Inflation has come down and shows signs of stabilizing. Inflation forecasts has stood up quite well over the past six months." unquote. At the same time, Erik Thedeén repeats that right now there is a lot of focus on CPIF where energy prices are excluded as they move a lot and are assumed to be shaky going forward. Energy prices have fallen by almost 30% in the past year and CPIF are very sensitive to energy prices, continues Erik Thedeén.

Erik Thedeén also emphasizes that there is no mechanical formula for Riksbanken to use when deciding on changes in the policy rate, it is an overall assessment. The Governor of Riksbanken concludes by saying that the forecasts for the policy rate, the so-called interest rate path, are not a promise. Quote “There is still considerable uncertainty. Among other things, geopolitical developments can affect inflation and make further cuts unreasonable." unquote.

Personally, I think that Erik Thedeén and his colleagues have already decided that they will not lower the Swedish policy rate by 50 points and that the warning about a geopolitical development and the exchange rate of the krona is only a way of trying to excuse themselves.

It is not my or SVT's business to tell Americans what is best for them

The Swedish MSM is doing its utmost to portray Donald Trump as the evil one and Kamala Harris as the good one. As a resident and citizen of Sweden, I am far too poorly versed in American politics to have any opinion on who is the best America.

It's unbelievable how many Swedes who completely lack basic knowledge about the party leaders in the eight political parties that make up the Swedish parliament are all of a sudden experts on the 2 American candidates.

In a report on February 11, 2020 before the primary election in New Hampshire, the US correspondent from the state-owned Swedish television (SVT) Stefan Asberg said quote "Our friend Joe Biden" unquote.

SVT, which is 100% tax-financed, ambition is quote "to review and portray the issues that are important to you. SVT operates in the service of the public and is run independently in relation to political, commercial and other interests in society." unquote.

Two steps forward, one step back

Yesterday was payment day for our single largest holding, Main Street Capital Corporation Common Stock (MAIN), it is also one of our single largest payouts. Since we live in Sweden, there is a delay of anywhere from 1 to 10 days before we receive the dividend.

(MAIN) which together with Fidus Investment Corporation Common Stock (FDUS), Realty Income Corporation Common Stock (O) and Sixth Street Specialty Lending, Inc. Common Stock (TSLX) make up just under 35% of the portfolio's total holdings.

Having 4 holdings make up so much of the portfolio value is risky but for every month that we reinvest our dividends and the world's most perfect husband invests his pension he gets from his private pension insurance reduces their influence on the portfolio. As long as we do not continue our acquisition in any of them.

The Swedish krona (SEK) has strengthened compared to the end of April/May 2024 when 1 US dollar cost SEK 11.02, which can be compared to today's exchange rate of 1 USD = 10.43 SEK. The exchange rate difference affects all holdings without exception. My Google sheet clearly shows the difference in actual money from month to month due to the exchange rate fluctuations.

The recent strengthening of the Swedish krona reduces the value of our portfolio calculated in SEK. The value today is lower than July 2024 when the portfolio reached ATH in SEK, despite the many acquisitions we have made since then.

Yesterday our portfolio reached ATH in USD.

Click to enlarge

Group 1 - Q4, special dividend

The declared extra dividends in the first month of Q4 are meager. Only 2 of our holdings choose or have the opportunity to make an extra payment.

Carlyle Secured Lending, Inc. Common Stock (CGBD), ¢7 with payment date October 17, 2024

FS KKR Capital Corp. Ordinary share (FSK), ¢6 with payment date 2 October 2024

MSM needs to stop turning a blind eye

For transparency and my own agenda, I strongly dislike our previous government, the Social Democrats with the support of the Green Party and the tacit acceptance of the Left Party, who ruled Sweden for 8 years. At the last election, I voted for the current government.

The biggest difference between right and left politically is, apart from political values, that the left now always uses violence. Yesterday another pro-Palestinian demonstration was held in Sweden and once again a journalist was completely unprovoked attacked by demonstrators and had his nose bone cut off.

After the demonstration, the organizer, United Front for Palestine, chooses to make a post on Instagram where they deliberately lie about how the attack took place. It is not the first time that a journalist has been abused by organizers within the Pro-Palestine movement. Then as now, the assault is recorded on both pictures and videos by the police's surveillance cameras.

At the same time, I read that another person has been arrested in connection with a Trump rally in Coachella, California, on suspicion of intending to shoot Donald Trump. It is the third time that Donald Trump has been subjected to an assassination attempt.

Why is the left so violent and why isn't the MSM writing about this?