11.03.2024

Let's hope that Riksbanken acts maturely next week

Speaking of the Swedish policy rate, according to the Swedish newspaper Expressen, all Swedish major banks' experts agree that there will be a so-called double reduction next week. The last time this happened was July 3, 2014.

Swedbank was the first to declare in its Ranteblad for October as early as September 30, 2024 that it expects Riksbanken to lower the policy rate by 50 basis points.

Handelsbanken was significantly later with its forecast and wrote on October 29 that it expects a reduction in the Swedish policy rate by 50 basis points.

Last up was SEB, who only wrote on November 1, 2024 that they are predicting a 50 basis point cut in the policy rate next week. In addition to these major Swedish banks, Den Danske Bank and DNB also agree to this scenario, continues the newspaper Expressen.

As a counterweight to this, Swedish central bank governor Erik Thedéen has on several occasions warned of the risk of taking a double interest rate cut for granted. Sometimes Riksbanken's (re)acting can be experienced as a defiant 3-year-old, let's hope they have their big pants on next week.

Personally, I think that Riksbanken is "forced" instead of a voluntary reduction by 50 points this time mainly because they are aware that their measures take time before they work and that if Sweden's inflationary trend is not broken soon, Sweden may experience deflation.

AI generated image with Grok

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