6.15.2024

This bad news cannot go on forever

CPIF for May was 2.3%, which is slightly higher than the 2.1-2% that most economists had predicted. This cemented the market's expectations that a future cut in the policy rate will only take place at the monetary policy meeting on 19 August 2024 and not on 27 June 2024.

I believe that Riksbanken will be forced to lower the policy rate by at least 50 percentage points before the turn of the year 2024/25 to get Sweden's economy going again. Since March 2023, the number of bankruptcies per month has continued to be higher than the corresponding month the year before, which is 15 months in a row.

The trend is deeply worrying and indicates a deep recession.

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