Forbes has an article on how "Trump's Polymarket Odds Top 60%: How Election Betting Markets Differ From Polls". An approximate 60% betting odds does not correspond to a 60% to 40% lead for Trump in opinion polls, but rather indicates that the election bettors expect Trump to win about 60 out of 100 election simulations.
Poll-based election models are almost exactly split, with statistician Nate Silver's model giving Trump a 50.2% chance of winning compared to 49.5% for Harris, while FiveThirtyEight gives Harris a 53% to 46% advantage. National polls lean in Harris' favor, with Real Clear Polling's latest weighted data giving Harris a 49.2% to 47.7% advantage. What drives the dramatic change in odds despite mixed survey data has not been determined.
Nate Silver, who advises Polymarket, wrote last week that it's possible that a Trump-leaning demographic on the sites could skew the data to reflect stronger Trump odds than is warranted by the data. Polls attempt to map smaller groups that are representative of the broader American voter population across race, age and other demographics.
If there is a Trump-leaning demographic on the sites to skew the data to reflect stronger Trump odds than the data warrants, the value of our portfolio will drop faster than Legacy Media's credibility on November 6, 2024.
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