I hope I'm wrong

The European Central Bank's (ECB) next interest rate announcement will come on Thursday. The market is divided into two almost exactly equal parts as to whether the ECB will leave interest rates unchanged or implement an increase.

The ECB's three most important parameters that form the basis of their reaction function are underlying inflation, inflation expectations in the medium term and that the monetary policy pursued is having a good effect.

Personally, I believe in an increase of 25 points mainly because of the ongoing inflation which is still far too high plus the monetary policy conducted has not had a good enough effect yet.

My wish, however, is for the ECB to leave the policy rate unchanged, which might make it easier for the Swedish central bank, Riksbanken, to do the same.